Pacquiao and Cotto have an equal chance to win Saturday's showdown

Being a fulltime boxing writer is, for the most part, a great gig.

The athletes I write about for RingTV.com are fascinating -- often inspirational -- personalities, and some of the events I get to cover are right out of a hardcore fight fan’s dream.

The welterweight showdown between Manny Pacquiao and Miguel Cotto, which takes place at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas this Saturday, is a prime example.

I’m going to be ringside to witness the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter take on one of the best welterweights in an atmosphere that will be akin to a World Cup final.

So what’s the drawback of being a fight scribe? There really aren’t any, but a slight pain in my butt is the expectation from fans and fellow journalists to pick the winner before every major fight.

Usually it’s no big deal, but every now and then we’re lucky enough to get a match between world-class fighters that’s too close to make a clear call.

That’s what we have with Cotto vs. Pacquiao. Folks, this is an even matchup between classy fighters I admire so much that trying to predict the outcome actually takes away from the enjoyment of the fight.

Sadly, if I just call the fight a “pick-’em” contest and leave it at that the message board freaks will say I’m “hedging” or “waffling.” Whatever.

The truth is that both Pacquiao and Cotto have an equal chance to win Saturday’s fight and I’m going to tell you why, starting with the Filipino icon.

WHY PACQUIAO WILL WIN

Pacquiao’s keys to victory are obvious ones -- his speed and style.

Cotto has many impressive physical tools, but quickness isn’t one of them.

While it’s true the two-division titleholder has proven his ability to cope with faster fighters. I don’t know whether he’s ever dealt with a speed demon of Pacquiao’s caliber.

Cotto has faced two fighters possessing hand speed that is comparable to Pacquiao’s -- Zab Judah and Shane Mosley, both of whom he beat in 2007.

What doesn’t bode well for Cotto is that Judah, who isn’t in Pacquiao’s league, repeatedly nailed and rocked him during the first half of their entertaining scrap.

Many ringsiders believed that Mosley, who is in Pacquiao’s league, competed well enough with Cotto to deserve a draw. Some fans and members of the press thought Mosley did enough to win the fight by a point or two.

So while it’s true that Cotto has the skills to compete with faster fighters, it’s clear that he struggles when faced with ultra-talented speed merchants.

Unfortunately for Cotto, Pacquiao is a far more complete fighter than Judah and, unlike Mosley, he’s also in his prime.

However, it’s not just the velocity of Pacquiao’s punches that will cause Cotto all kinds of trouble; it’s the various angles from which the pound-for-pound king will deliver his blistering combinations.

Under Freddie Roach’s guidance, Pacquiao has developed into a complete boxer with a full arsenal at his disposal, and the dynamic southpaw can reach into his bag of veteran tricks to unleash jabs, right hooks, lead lefts, uppercuts, body shots or head and foot feints at the speed of thought.

Adding defense and additional angles to Pacquiao’s upper-body offense is his frenetic footwork. The Pac-Man’s feet are just as fast as his fists and his fluid in-and-out movement have made him one of the most devastating stick-and-move specialists of the decade.

Bottom line: Pacquiao is very hard to time and almost impossible to predict.

Can the same be said of Cotto?

I think not.

However, Cotto has a lot going for him in this fight.

WHY COTTO WILL WIN

Like Pacquiao, Cotto’s advantages are obvious ones: his size, physical strength, savvy and versatility.

Cotto is no more than an inch and a half taller than Pacquiao and his reach is equal to or even shorter than the naturally smaller man. However, the Puerto Rican star is a real welterweight; Pacquiao isn’t.

While it’s true Pacquiao has fought at welterweight once before and looked spectacular taking apart Oscar De La Hoya last December, we all know that he faced a faded, weight-drained veteran, and he had to train on protein shakes just to tip the scales at 142 pounds.

Roach is the first to admit that junior welterweight, where Pacquiao holds THE RING world title, is the best division for his fighter.

“He had two full meals before the (Ricky) Hatton weigh-in and he still only weighed in at 138 pounds,” Roach said recently.

Cotto competed in the 139-pound division during the final years of his amateur career, when he was still a teen-ager. He struggled mightily to make the 140-pound limit as a young pro before he finally stepped up to the welterweight division in December of 2006.

I don’t have to tell RingTV.com readers that Cotto has looked much sturdier at 147 pounds than he did at junior welterweight.

Cotto is used to banging with much bigger men than Pacquiao and he has exhibited the physical strength to muscle junior middleweight-sized fighters to the ropes.

If Cotto can back Pacquiao to the ropes, he has the power and accuracy to seriously hurt the 140-pound champ.

I’ve witnessed more than a few sparring sessions in which rugged fighters who were lighter than Cotto backed Pacquiao to the ropes and put heavy hands on the Pinoy hero.

Former lightweight contender Jose Armando Santa Cruz did it more than once prior to Pacquiao’s fight with Jorge Solis in 2007. Once-beaten lightweight Urbano Antillon did it in a number of gym sessions during Pacquiao’s camp for Hatton.

Cruz and Antillon are tough hombres but they don’t punch as accurately or as hard as Cotto does.

Pacquiao’s fans can make the argument that their man often holds back in sparring sessions, and I agree with this point, but there’s evidence in his fights that he’s vulnerable along the ropes.

Erik Morales landed his best shots when Pacquiao’s back was to the ropes. I recall a natural junior featherweight, Oscar Larios, putting Pacquiao on Queer Street for a scary split second or two during their 130-pound bout in 2006. Larios landed his near-history-changing left hook while Pacquiao was playing around on the ropes.

If Cotto gets Pacquiao in the same position and lands his hook in the same spot, forget about it, the fight’s over.

But Cotto has more than a puncher’s chance in Saturday’s contest. He has the kind of guile, savvy and versatility that only comes from quality experience.

No, Cotto is not as seasoned as Pacquiao, nor has he faced as many elite fighters as the six-division titleholder has, but he’s as experienced against top fighters as a 29-year-old boxer can be.

In less than 10 years in the pro game, Cotto has faced 11 titleholders, five of whom were undefeated and three of whom were Top-5 RING-ranked contenders at the time he fought them.

Cotto’s one-sided stoppages of Carlos Quintana and Carlos Massua, his slugfests with Ricardo Torres and Judah, and his 12-round battles with Mosley and Joshua Clottey have shown us the kind of fighter and man he is.

He’s a formidable boxer-puncher with clean technique, accurate combinations, underrated counter-punching ability and a devastating body attack. He’s doesn’t have the best set of whiskers but his heart is truly world-class. Cotto will not wilt in the face of adversity.

Some fools have had the gall to say Cotto quit in his lone loss to Antonio Margarito last July. That’s absolute garbage. Cotto, who boxed brilliantly for five rounds and fought valiantly for the next five, was literally beaten into submission by the iron-chinned Margarito, whose gloves might have been loaded.

Cotto does not quit when the going gets tough. Even when he’s partially blinded by a gruesome cut over one of his eyes, as he was in his tough fight with Clottey in June, the man finds a way to win.

Can the same be said about Pacquiao? I’m not 100 percent sure.

The hardest fights I’ve covered of Pacquiao’s was his technical draw with the late Agapito Sanchez in 2001, his points loss to Morales in 2005 and his split-decision over Juan Manuel Marquez last March.

In each of those bouts, Pacquiao suffered nasty gashes over one of his eyes and -- I know I’m going to piss off his legion of fans with what I’m about to suggest next, but so be it -- there were moments after he was cut in all three of those bouts when it looked like he didn’t want to be in the ring.

What if Pacquiao suffers a cut against a fighter as big and confident as Cotto? It may very well happen, folks. Pacquiao is a southpaw who jumps in with his punches and Cotto is an orthodox fighter who often leans his head forward when he lets his hands go.

If Pacquiao gets cut during Saturday’s fight, will he regress into the emotional one-armed bandit he used to be? Can he afford to have a round, or even half a round, when he seems lost or confused because of the flow of blood obstructing his vision?

Food for thought.

PREDICTION:

I’ve got one but I’m not letting it out of the bag yet.

I want to enjoy the anticipation of an excellent matchup without picking a winner for a few days.

Don’t worry, I’ll give my prediction by Friday’s mailbag, or maybe even after the weigh-in, but I want to hear what you think first.

Source: ringtv.com